Module 5: regression evidence One-day-ahead regression study
Dataset: UCI Bike Sharing daily counts, CC BY 4.0
Selected on validation: previous_day
Final observations: 110
Selected final MAE: 926.573 requests per day
Mean residual: -46.736 requests; positive means underprediction
Largest absolute residual: 4470.000 requests on 2012-10-31
Predictions remain real-valued, with no unannounced rounding or clipping.
Final results do not justify changing the frozen selection. The public fixture is an evaluation rehearsal, not a hidden benchmark. Selected predictions and residuals (CSV) · Selected and baseline predictions (CSV) · Text report · Split and source provenance
Frozen model and baseline scores Final-test errors; not a model-selection table model mae mean_residual negative_predictions previous_day 926.5727272727273 -46.736363636363635 0 training_mean 2330.675324675324 1724.122402597404 0 previous_week 1382.1 -350.3909090909091 0
Forecast Actual and predicted daily requests for 110 final-test dates. Final MAE is 926.573 requests/day. Exact values are in the selected-predictions table; a close line match does not establish reliable future performance. Residuals Residuals are actual minus predicted; above zero means underprediction. Mean residual is -46.736 requests. Largest absolute residual is 4470.000 on 2012-10-31. Inspect the full table for changing error direction, runs, and isolated errors; errors need not be independent. Exact selected-model observations Each selected prediction, actual count, and residual target_date model actual_requests predicted_requests residual 2012-09-13 previous_day 7804 7870.0 -66.0 2012-09-14 previous_day 8009 7804.0 205.0 2012-09-15 previous_day 8714 8009.0 705.0 2012-09-16 previous_day 7333 8714.0 -1381.0 2012-09-17 previous_day 6869 7333.0 -464.0 2012-09-18 previous_day 4073 6869.0 -2796.0 2012-09-19 previous_day 7591 4073.0 3518.0 2012-09-20 previous_day 7720 7591.0 129.0 2012-09-21 previous_day 8167 7720.0 447.0 2012-09-22 previous_day 8395 8167.0 228.0 2012-09-23 previous_day 7907 8395.0 -488.0 2012-09-24 previous_day 7436 7907.0 -471.0 2012-09-25 previous_day 7538 7436.0 102.0 2012-09-26 previous_day 7733 7538.0 195.0 2012-09-27 previous_day 7393 7733.0 -340.0 2012-09-28 previous_day 7415 7393.0 22.0 2012-09-29 previous_day 8555 7415.0 1140.0 2012-09-30 previous_day 6889 8555.0 -1666.0 2012-10-01 previous_day 6778 6889.0 -111.0 2012-10-02 previous_day 4639 6778.0 -2139.0 2012-10-03 previous_day 7572 4639.0 2933.0 2012-10-04 previous_day 7328 7572.0 -244.0 2012-10-05 previous_day 8156 7328.0 828.0 2012-10-06 previous_day 7965 8156.0 -191.0 2012-10-07 previous_day 3510 7965.0 -4455.0 2012-10-08 previous_day 5478 3510.0 1968.0 2012-10-09 previous_day 6392 5478.0 914.0 2012-10-10 previous_day 7691 6392.0 1299.0 2012-10-11 previous_day 7570 7691.0 -121.0 2012-10-12 previous_day 7282 7570.0 -288.0 2012-10-13 previous_day 7109 7282.0 -173.0 2012-10-14 previous_day 6639 7109.0 -470.0 2012-10-15 previous_day 5875 6639.0 -764.0 2012-10-16 previous_day 7534 5875.0 1659.0 2012-10-17 previous_day 7461 7534.0 -73.0 2012-10-18 previous_day 7509 7461.0 48.0 2012-10-19 previous_day 5424 7509.0 -2085.0 2012-10-20 previous_day 8090 5424.0 2666.0 2012-10-21 previous_day 6824 8090.0 -1266.0 2012-10-22 previous_day 7058 6824.0 234.0 2012-10-23 previous_day 7466 7058.0 408.0 2012-10-24 previous_day 7693 7466.0 227.0 2012-10-25 previous_day 7359 7693.0 -334.0 2012-10-26 previous_day 7444 7359.0 85.0 2012-10-27 previous_day 7852 7444.0 408.0 2012-10-28 previous_day 4459 7852.0 -3393.0 2012-10-29 previous_day 22 4459.0 -4437.0 2012-10-30 previous_day 1096 22.0 1074.0 2012-10-31 previous_day 5566 1096.0 4470.0 2012-11-01 previous_day 5986 5566.0 420.0 2012-11-02 previous_day 5847 5986.0 -139.0 2012-11-03 previous_day 5138 5847.0 -709.0 2012-11-04 previous_day 5107 5138.0 -31.0 2012-11-05 previous_day 5259 5107.0 152.0 2012-11-06 previous_day 5686 5259.0 427.0 2012-11-07 previous_day 5035 5686.0 -651.0 2012-11-08 previous_day 5315 5035.0 280.0 2012-11-09 previous_day 5992 5315.0 677.0 2012-11-10 previous_day 6536 5992.0 544.0 2012-11-11 previous_day 6852 6536.0 316.0 2012-11-12 previous_day 6269 6852.0 -583.0 2012-11-13 previous_day 4094 6269.0 -2175.0 2012-11-14 previous_day 5495 4094.0 1401.0 2012-11-15 previous_day 5445 5495.0 -50.0 2012-11-16 previous_day 5698 5445.0 253.0 2012-11-17 previous_day 5629 5698.0 -69.0 2012-11-18 previous_day 4669 5629.0 -960.0 2012-11-19 previous_day 5499 4669.0 830.0 2012-11-20 previous_day 5634 5499.0 135.0 2012-11-21 previous_day 5146 5634.0 -488.0 2012-11-22 previous_day 2425 5146.0 -2721.0 2012-11-23 previous_day 3910 2425.0 1485.0 2012-11-24 previous_day 2277 3910.0 -1633.0 2012-11-25 previous_day 2424 2277.0 147.0 2012-11-26 previous_day 5087 2424.0 2663.0 2012-11-27 previous_day 3959 5087.0 -1128.0 2012-11-28 previous_day 5260 3959.0 1301.0 2012-11-29 previous_day 5323 5260.0 63.0 2012-11-30 previous_day 5668 5323.0 345.0 2012-12-01 previous_day 5191 5668.0 -477.0 2012-12-02 previous_day 4649 5191.0 -542.0 2012-12-03 previous_day 6234 4649.0 1585.0 2012-12-04 previous_day 6606 6234.0 372.0 2012-12-05 previous_day 5729 6606.0 -877.0 2012-12-06 previous_day 5375 5729.0 -354.0 2012-12-07 previous_day 5008 5375.0 -367.0 2012-12-08 previous_day 5582 5008.0 574.0 2012-12-09 previous_day 3228 5582.0 -2354.0 2012-12-10 previous_day 5170 3228.0 1942.0 2012-12-11 previous_day 5501 5170.0 331.0 2012-12-12 previous_day 5319 5501.0 -182.0 2012-12-13 previous_day 5532 5319.0 213.0 2012-12-14 previous_day 5611 5532.0 79.0 2012-12-15 previous_day 5047 5611.0 -564.0 2012-12-16 previous_day 3786 5047.0 -1261.0 2012-12-17 previous_day 4585 3786.0 799.0 2012-12-18 previous_day 5557 4585.0 972.0 2012-12-19 previous_day 5267 5557.0 -290.0 2012-12-20 previous_day 4128 5267.0 -1139.0 2012-12-21 previous_day 3623 4128.0 -505.0 2012-12-22 previous_day 1749 3623.0 -1874.0 2012-12-23 previous_day 1787 1749.0 38.0 2012-12-24 previous_day 920 1787.0 -867.0 2012-12-25 previous_day 1013 920.0 93.0 2012-12-26 previous_day 441 1013.0 -572.0 2012-12-27 previous_day 2114 441.0 1673.0 2012-12-28 previous_day 3095 2114.0 981.0 2012-12-29 previous_day 1341 3095.0 -1754.0 2012-12-30 previous_day 1796 1341.0 455.0 2012-12-31 previous_day 2729 1796.0 933.0
