Module 6: classification and decision trees
{
"module": 6,
"dataset": "UCI red wine quality",
"rows": 1599,
"chosen_model": "logistic",
"threshold": 0.3,
"selection_metric": "validation balanced accuracy",
"test": {
"model": "logistic",
"n": 243,
"tp": 19,
"tn": 184,
"fp": 30,
"fn": 10,
"precision": 0.3877551020408163,
"recall": 0.6551724137931034,
"specificity": 0.8598130841121495,
"selection_rate": 0.20164609053497942,
"fpr": 0.14018691588785046,
"balanced_accuracy": 0.7574927489526264,
"f1": 0.48717948717948717
},
"split_group_overlap": false,
"label": "human score >=7"
}Chemistry-identical rows stay in one split. No physical sample IDs exist; independence cannot be guaranteed.
Quality >=7 is a declared classroom label, not a safety/quality certification. Thresholds are selected on validation only.
Confusion counts, denominators, and rates are explicit. Feature importance and tree rules describe this fit, not causal effects.
Validation Scores
Download validation scores (CSV)
| model | threshold | n | tp | tn | fp | fn | precision | recall | specificity | selection_rate | fpr | balanced_accuracy | f1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| logistic | 0.3 | 238 | 20 | 188 | 16 | 14 | 0.5555555555555556 | 0.5882352941176471 | 0.9215686274509803 | 0.15126050420168066 | 0.0784313725490196 | 0.7549019607843137 | 0.5714285714285714 |
| tree_depth_4 | 0.3 | 238 | 12 | 178 | 26 | 22 | 0.3157894736842105 | 0.35294117647058826 | 0.8725490196078431 | 0.15966386554621848 | 0.12745098039215685 | 0.6127450980392157 | 0.3333333333333333 |
| logistic | 0.5 | 238 | 8 | 196 | 8 | 26 | 0.5 | 0.23529411764705882 | 0.9607843137254902 | 0.06722689075630252 | 0.0392156862745098 | 0.5980392156862745 | 0.32 |
| tree_depth_2 | 0.3 | 238 | 7 | 202 | 2 | 27 | 0.7777777777777778 | 0.20588235294117646 | 0.9901960784313726 | 0.037815126050420166 | 0.00980392156862745 | 0.5980392156862745 | 0.32558139534883723 |
| tree_depth_2 | 0.5 | 238 | 7 | 202 | 2 | 27 | 0.7777777777777778 | 0.20588235294117646 | 0.9901960784313726 | 0.037815126050420166 | 0.00980392156862745 | 0.5980392156862745 | 0.32558139534883723 |
| tree_depth_4 | 0.5 | 238 | 7 | 197 | 7 | 27 | 0.5 | 0.20588235294117646 | 0.9656862745098039 | 0.058823529411764705 | 0.03431372549019608 | 0.5857843137254902 | 0.2916666666666667 |
| tree_depth_8 | 0.5 | 238 | 7 | 189 | 15 | 27 | 0.3181818181818182 | 0.20588235294117646 | 0.9264705882352942 | 0.09243697478991597 | 0.07352941176470588 | 0.5661764705882353 | 0.25 |
| tree_depth_8 | 0.3 | 238 | 10 | 168 | 36 | 24 | 0.21739130434782608 | 0.29411764705882354 | 0.8235294117647058 | 0.19327731092436976 | 0.17647058823529413 | 0.5588235294117647 | 0.25 |
| tree_depth_4 | 0.7 | 238 | 5 | 197 | 7 | 29 | 0.4166666666666667 | 0.14705882352941177 | 0.9656862745098039 | 0.05042016806722689 | 0.03431372549019608 | 0.5563725490196079 | 0.21739130434782608 |
| tree_depth_8 | 0.7 | 238 | 4 | 191 | 13 | 30 | 0.23529411764705882 | 0.11764705882352941 | 0.9362745098039216 | 0.07142857142857142 | 0.06372549019607843 | 0.5269607843137255 | 0.1568627450980392 |
| logistic | 0.7 | 238 | 1 | 203 | 1 | 33 | 0.5 | 0.029411764705882353 | 0.9950980392156863 | 0.008403361344537815 | 0.004901960784313725 | 0.5122549019607843 | 0.05555555555555555 |
| dummy | 0.3 | 238 | 0 | 204 | 0 | 34 | nan | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| dummy | 0.5 | 238 | 0 | 204 | 0 | 34 | nan | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| dummy | 0.7 | 238 | 0 | 204 | 0 | 34 | nan | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| tree_depth_2 | 0.7 | 238 | 0 | 204 | 0 | 34 | nan | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
Test Scores
| model | n | tp | tn | fp | fn | precision | recall | specificity | selection_rate | fpr | balanced_accuracy | f1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| logistic | 243 | 19 | 184 | 30 | 10 | 0.3877551020408163 | 0.6551724137931034 | 0.8598130841121495 | 0.20164609053497942 | 0.14018691588785046 | 0.7574927489526264 | 0.48717948717948717 |
| dummy_majority | 243 | 0 | 214 | 0 | 29 | nan | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
Test Predictions
Download test predictions (CSV)
| record_id | actual | probability | predicted |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0 | 0.014651770537667128 | 0 |
| 20 | 0 | 0.053861444925335275 | 0 |
| 33 | 0 | 0.013362916418111636 | 0 |
| 35 | 0 | 0.011983026443058889 | 0 |
| 38 | 0 | 0.001720587437383464 | 0 |
| 57 | 0 | 0.01414689279497224 | 0 |
| 58 | 0 | 0.01930554892194134 | 0 |
| 69 | 0 | 0.10567445402229415 | 0 |
| 86 | 0 | 0.5928789744450097 | 1 |
| 88 | 0 | 0.151135922122983 | 0 |
| 89 | 0 | 0.004930806564848543 | 0 |
| 90 | 0 | 0.01219752790607049 | 0 |
| 91 | 0 | 0.5928789744450097 | 1 |
| 98 | 0 | 0.009287046401852751 | 0 |
| 100 | 0 | 0.02812150083004156 | 0 |
| 107 | 0 | 0.012008670820420973 | 0 |
| 108 | 0 | 0.05583243847387744 | 0 |
| 111 | 0 | 0.01753324707548406 | 0 |
| 124 | 0 | 0.010523057180574821 | 0 |
| 125 | 0 | 0.007632767287666803 | 0 |
| 129 | 0 | 0.022804267291826778 | 0 |
| 131 | 0 | 0.24163378477397857 | 0 |
| 132 | 0 | 0.24163378477397857 | 0 |
| 137 | 0 | 0.019070138454440888 | 0 |
| 145 | 0 | 0.007897780931295041 | 0 |
| 160 | 0 | 0.00715397413987843 | 0 |
| 173 | 0 | 0.07069735195731736 | 0 |
| 177 | 0 | 0.039157310806955094 | 0 |
| 184 | 0 | 0.006612236346403311 | 0 |
| 191 | 0 | 0.023088861793951584 | 0 |
| 195 | 0 | 0.009035150172983628 | 0 |
| 198 | 1 | 0.25159366165961444 | 0 |
| 199 | 0 | 0.01630923406913672 | 0 |
| 208 | 0 | 0.02134844635654588 | 0 |
| 218 | 0 | 0.024323892232041854 | 0 |
| 220 | 0 | 0.034865168414114994 | 0 |
| 232 | 0 | 0.03725309641666988 | 0 |
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| 336 | 0 | 0.6097812620967596 | 1 |
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| 346 | 1 | 0.18801518863077188 | 0 |
| 347 | 0 | 0.7690310106505195 | 1 |
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| 455 | 1 | 0.6475648202576217 | 1 |
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| 775 | 0 | 0.00538638738856392 | 0 |
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| 803 | 0 | 0.015819621076967365 | 0 |
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| 838 | 1 | 0.41933558262938797 | 1 |
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| 885 | 0 | 0.02648806396999511 | 0 |
| 886 | 0 | 0.022415439445394886 | 0 |
| 887 | 1 | 0.588863282716784 | 1 |
| 894 | 0 | 0.007657100255804378 | 0 |
| 899 | 0 | 0.0094151527659644 | 0 |
| 903 | 1 | 0.07853530705038819 | 0 |
| 904 | 1 | 0.07853530705038819 | 0 |
| 918 | 0 | 0.16701766208956922 | 0 |
| 919 | 0 | 0.36463372853612347 | 1 |
| 921 | 0 | 0.16701766208956922 | 0 |
| 922 | 0 | 0.36463372853612347 | 1 |
| 925 | 1 | 0.43276112469739614 | 1 |
| 931 | 0 | 0.015812925709602126 | 0 |
| 932 | 0 | 0.02315917939860683 | 0 |
| 933 | 0 | 0.015812925709602126 | 0 |
| 948 | 1 | 0.637957965434456 | 1 |
| 949 | 1 | 0.637957965434456 | 1 |
| 950 | 1 | 0.637957965434456 | 1 |
| 960 | 0 | 0.33977376893513445 | 1 |
| 961 | 0 | 0.01845095244837391 | 0 |
| 964 | 0 | 0.33977376893513445 | 1 |
| 982 | 0 | 0.5945514298909398 | 1 |
| 986 | 1 | 0.3724054298300972 | 1 |
| 987 | 0 | 0.015621283877119158 | 0 |
| 1017 | 0 | 0.7050654797142683 | 1 |
| 1018 | 0 | 0.7050654797142683 | 1 |
| 1020 | 0 | 0.3991749192126407 | 1 |
| 1021 | 0 | 0.3991749192126407 | 1 |
| 1022 | 0 | 0.04708562263590607 | 0 |
| 1028 | 0 | 0.051878279872336265 | 0 |
| 1036 | 1 | 0.5377496821810291 | 1 |
| 1037 | 0 | 0.004079815475555046 | 0 |
| 1038 | 1 | 0.7234860336786388 | 1 |
| 1053 | 1 | 0.7167806673432746 | 1 |
| 1056 | 1 | 0.34284268939918144 | 1 |
| 1059 | 1 | 0.34284268939918144 | 1 |
| 1072 | 0 | 0.022188576518145632 | 0 |
| 1073 | 0 | 0.042364288016986065 | 0 |
| 1077 | 0 | 0.20445021770203287 | 0 |
| 1078 | 0 | 0.20445021770203287 | 0 |
| 1088 | 1 | 0.18371348351584363 | 0 |
| 1089 | 1 | 0.18371348351584363 | 0 |
| 1102 | 0 | 0.08166404886466323 | 0 |
| 1135 | 0 | 0.40030497843636687 | 1 |
| 1142 | 0 | 0.2760181127799699 | 0 |
| 1145 | 0 | 0.2367920681035853 | 0 |
| 1146 | 0 | 0.03635100281715649 | 0 |
| 1149 | 0 | 0.4348604707049301 | 1 |
| 1151 | 0 | 0.2668444343476764 | 0 |
| 1158 | 0 | 0.35284842645312997 | 1 |
| 1172 | 0 | 0.5239132666438798 | 1 |
| 1177 | 1 | 0.38104819006341084 | 1 |
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| 1184 | 0 | 0.034042001457850884 | 0 |
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| 1237 | 0 | 0.19666177903984944 | 0 |
| 1242 | 0 | 0.5060477274565739 | 1 |
| 1244 | 0 | 0.09883501271666267 | 0 |
| 1249 | 0 | 0.06262999915873706 | 0 |
| 1250 | 0 | 0.06262999915873706 | 0 |
| 1254 | 0 | 0.0555154254302924 | 0 |
| 1258 | 0 | 0.04823958340691824 | 0 |
| 1259 | 0 | 0.04823958340691824 | 0 |
| 1268 | 0 | 0.01911180119811147 | 0 |
| 1269 | 1 | 0.7719816935431097 | 1 |
| 1274 | 0 | 0.08158928868384308 | 0 |
| 1292 | 0 | 0.36770485367736216 | 1 |
| 1295 | 0 | 0.010627757642769416 | 0 |
| 1296 | 0 | 0.010627757642769416 | 0 |
| 1313 | 0 | 0.03719619599301434 | 0 |
| 1333 | 0 | 0.01037021323841358 | 0 |
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| 1343 | 0 | 0.04203914583518361 | 0 |
| 1350 | 0 | 0.036408585169691685 | 0 |
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| 1370 | 0 | 0.00551132128980495 | 0 |
| 1372 | 0 | 0.00551132128980495 | 0 |
| 1375 | 0 | 0.013321126118117333 | 0 |
| 1382 | 0 | 0.013798741215577632 | 0 |
| 1383 | 0 | 0.013798741215577632 | 0 |
| 1385 | 0 | 0.005395396421056853 | 0 |
| 1390 | 0 | 0.26879689342111174 | 0 |
| 1395 | 0 | 0.015964312792915242 | 0 |
| 1399 | 0 | 0.08138429410083703 | 0 |
| 1403 | 1 | 0.29095821259535803 | 0 |
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| 1420 | 0 | 0.024131313827559717 | 0 |
| 1428 | 0 | 0.05518343217087873 | 0 |
| 1431 | 0 | 0.033058910975683656 | 0 |
| 1436 | 0 | 0.00691638992667975 | 0 |
| 1438 | 0 | 0.02388847162337741 | 0 |
| 1447 | 0 | 0.016554267129593892 | 0 |
| 1449 | 1 | 0.31937186160382675 | 1 |
| 1453 | 0 | 0.011165631411256313 | 0 |
| 1457 | 0 | 0.011165631411256313 | 0 |
| 1464 | 0 | 0.026968411877875433 | 0 |
| 1465 | 0 | 0.026968411877875433 | 0 |
| 1478 | 0 | 0.00993982678713906 | 0 |
| 1487 | 0 | 0.06402745893115878 | 0 |
| 1488 | 0 | 0.08748483064885898 | 0 |
| 1491 | 0 | 0.08748483064885898 | 0 |
| 1492 | 0 | 0.12355547849905842 | 0 |
| 1503 | 0 | 0.1198219253362473 | 0 |
| 1505 | 0 | 0.01465221244795144 | 0 |
| 1529 | 0 | 0.027745037680300295 | 0 |
| 1532 | 0 | 0.05520586029189315 | 0 |
| 1538 | 0 | 0.09977313870490119 | 0 |
| 1540 | 0 | 0.09652982434953769 | 0 |
| 1548 | 0 | 0.1132451919667061 | 0 |
| 1558 | 0 | 0.004198062471120595 | 0 |
| 1570 | 0 | 0.38064341184994127 | 1 |
| 1577 | 0 | 0.08865860326481066 | 0 |
| 1580 | 0 | 0.31250246687295996 | 1 |
| 1586 | 0 | 0.45044586989957264 | 1 |
| 1594 | 0 | 0.032527079014804214 | 0 |
| 1595 | 0 | 0.11977902945876541 | 0 |
Tree Rules
| rule |
|---|
| |--- alcohol <= 11.55 |
| | |--- volatile acidity <= 0.36 |
| | | |--- class: 0 |
| | |--- volatile acidity > 0.36 |
| | | |--- class: 0 |
| |--- alcohol > 11.55 |
| | |--- sulphates <= 0.69 |
| | | |--- class: 0 |
| | |--- sulphates > 0.69 |
| | | |--- class: 1 |
Validation Calibration
Download validation calibration (CSV)
| bin | lower | upper | n | mean_probability | observed_rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 192 | 0.04937597262717756 | 0.057291666666666664 |
| 1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 25 | 0.3054218788459972 | 0.44 |
| 2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 12 | 0.5026837602594244 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 7 | 0.6383485335295547 | 0.7142857142857143 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2 | 0.8232125139452156 | 0.5 |
Tree Importance
Download tree importance (CSV)
| feature | importance |
|---|---|
| fixed acidity | 0.0 |
| volatile acidity | 0.20080933955496097 |
| citric acid | 0.0 |
| residual sugar | 0.0 |
| chlorides | 0.0 |
| free sulfur dioxide | 0.0 |
| total sulfur dioxide | 0.0 |
| density | 0.0 |
| pH | 0.0 |
| sulphates | 0.1873543611620831 |
| alcohol | 0.611836299282956 |